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A review of economic analyses on the potential impact of Brexit / European Central Bank

União Europeia. Banco Central Europeu

[Frankfurt] : ECB, 2020

Occasional Paper Series ; 249 (Oct. 2020)

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Documento integral disponível em: www.ecb.europa.eu

This paper summarises the economic analyses of the potential impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom, European Union (EU) and euro area performed by members of and contributors to the Brexit Task Force, a group reporting to the International Relations Committee of the European System of Central Banks. The studies were carried out between 2017 and the initial months of 2019 and have been independently published by the authors. The aim of this Occasional Paper is to present the studies in an organic manner, highlighting common features and results. The different pieces of analysis employ a wide range of methods to (i) investigate the impact of Brexit on the economy and trade, (ii) assess possible scenarios for the bilateral relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom after Brexit and (iii) investigate the role of the main macroeconomic channels of transmission of the Brexit shock: trade (including the role of European value chains), migration and foreign direct investment. Other transmission channels such as financial linkages or uncertainty, and the financial stability implications of Brexit were not covered in the studies reviewed here. The results of these studies provide additional quantitative and qualitative foundations for some widely shared conclusions on the consequences of Brexit. The cost of Brexit in terms of gross domestic product loss is estimated to be significantly greater for the United Kingdom than for the euro area and the EU as a whole. This result is consistent across models, methodologies and scenarios and applies to both the trade and migration channels. Nevertheless, the results differ across individual Member States. Ireland would be particularly affected because of its close ties with the UK economy. Given the estimated costs of withdrawal, the closer the final relationship is to the United Kingdom’s EU membership, the lower the macroeconomic costs of Brexit will be. The barriers to trade and investment between the EU and the United Kingdom that are expected to arise after Brexit will increase the costs of bilateral trade, as well as damaging inter-European production value chains and the allocation of capital across Member States. [Da introd.]

978-92-899-4425-0

União Europeia; Reino Unido; retirada da UE; análise económica; consequências económicas; estudo de impacto

10.16 CONSTRUÇÃO EUROPEIA

16 ACTIVIDADE ECONÓMICA

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